Can DAX bulls hold a rebound to improve the outlook again?

DAX Xetra (cash index)

Some of the technical signals being thrown off by the DAX make it very difficult to trade the market from a day to day perspective, however the development in the medium term trend continues to make worrying analysis.

The downtrend of the past three and a half months was decisively re-enforced on Friday by a huge bearish candle which closed 190 ticks lower.

Coming under the medium term downtrend and with momentum indicators showing concerning medium term signals suggests that the bulls have a serious fight on their hands to prevent another swing lower now.

Breaking the two week recovery with such a decisive bear candle along with a bear cross sell signal on the Stochastics (not yet confirmed) shows a new near term trend now forming.

The key will now be how the market responds to the rebound early in today’s session.

The candlestick is currently mildly positive (with the market around 50 ticks higher) but if this green candle turns red into the close (a close under the 12,263 open would be just that), it would suggest a rejection of the rebound.

• On the hourly chart there is a band of around 50 pips of resistance between 12,273/12,322 to deal with, whilst hourly momentum is still correctively configured with the hourly MACD lines below neutral.
• Beyond that is resistance around 12,360/12,395.
• A failure here would re-open Friday’s low of 12,190 and a move back towards 12,100/12,130 support.