DAX Xetra (cash index)
We have noted that the rally of recent days needs to be taken with caution, and this is something that we continue to believe.
Looking at the last two completed daily candlesticks, there has been a reaction higher at the open (due to overnight positivity from Wall Street gains) but then there is an almost complete lack of conviction throughout the European session.
A tiny daily range (and doji candle) on Tuesday was followed yesterday by another very small daily range and a mild negative candle (despite the higher close).
Another drop back from a 90 tick pull higher at the open will only add to this outlook of caution.
Although the rebound back above 11,000 is clearly a positive as this is a medium term pivot, also forming a mini uptrend, there is a real lack of conviction from the bulls which leaves the rally looking precarious.
- There is still a gap open at 11,041 and given the lack of drive higher (this does not have the look of a breakaway gap) then a retreat to at least fill this gap could easily be seen.
The market is edging higher once more today, but again with caution.
Momentum indicators are ticking higher and reflect the rebound of recent days but if the RSI fails under 60 again, this reduces the prospect of the market moving through the rally high of 11,371.
On the hourly chart watch out for the hourly MACD lines potentially crossing lower and a breach of the mini uptrend.
- This would put further pressure on initial support at 11,116, a breach of which would surely induce a fill of the gap at 11,041.
- How the market also reacts around 11,215 (which has been a near term pivot recently) will also be interesting.