There is a mild dollar positive, risk negative tone to major markets to start the week. Countries continue to see signs of flattening or improving death rates of COVID-19. This is a positive which is allowing the process of exit strategies from lockdowns to be discussed or implemented. However, the attention will be on how the second wave of infection kicks in. So there is a sense that traders do not want to be unrestrained in their hope of recovery, for the fear of being burnt once more. There is a degree of European markets playing catch up on another breakout on Wall Street on Friday, but this is unlikely to be the start of another bull surge for European stocks today. US futures are marginally weaker and the dollar is also edging stronger, along with US Treasury yields slipping slightly. This would not tend to be a recipe for sustained equity gains. Japanese trade data for March also showed worse than expected exports of -11.7% and higher than expected imports of -5.0% (-10.1% exp for exports, -9.8% expected for imports). This has significantly reduced the Japanese trade surplus and weighed slightly on the yen today. The big mover this morning is a huge sell-off on WTI which sees the front-month May contract down close to -20%. The outlook will not look so bad tomorrow after the contract rollover, but still with the massive oversupply in the market, there are ongoing negative pricing pressures.
Wall Street closed with another breakout to multi-week highs on Friday (S&P 500 +2.7% at 2874) whilst the E-mini S&P futures are ;slightly weaker today -0.5%. This has driven a mixed session in Asia, with the Nikkei -1.1% (weighed slightly by the trade data) whilst Shanghai Composite was +0.3%. In Europe there is a positive edge to early trading with FTSE futures +1.1% and DAX futures +1.0%. In forex, we see USD positive across most major pairs, with CAD the underperformer (on the continued slide in oil) and NZD an outperformer (on improved COVID-19 infection rates). In commodities, there is a continued slip back on gold whilst silver is holding up OK, but the big mover is oil, especially WTI (-20%) whilst Brent Crude is -3% lower.
There is a Eurozone bias to the economic calendar today. Eurozone Current Account for February is at 0900BST and is expected to show a third consecutive month of increase in the surplus to +€36.3bn (up from €35.0bn in January). The Eurozone Trade Balance is at 1000BST and is also expected to show another increase in February, to +€19.3bn (from +€17.0bn in January).
Chart of the Day – NZD/USD
With dovish comments from RBNZ Governor Orr last week, the fear was that the Kiwi would begin to slide in performance. Despite the uptick and positive session for NZD/USD on Friday, there is still a risk of the Kiwi struggling. The chart of NZD/USD reflects this, with the decisive breach of the recovery uptrend from the $0.5470 March low. Momentum indicators are faltering, with a confirmed renewed bear signal on Stochastics being primary concern, along with RSI struggling around 50. The key will now be how the bulls react early this week. It was interesting to see that support of Thursday’s low at $0.5920) formed around the rising 21 day moving average (at $0.5970 today) which has so often previously been a basis of resistance, but is now supportive. The Fibonacci retracements (of $0.6755/$0.5470) are becoming key gauges for the near term outlook. The 50% Fib at $0.6110 capped the April rally (which fell over at $0.6130) which the 38.2% Fib is now a basis of support around $0.5960. The bulls need to sustain the momentum of Friday’s rebound as following the trend breach the risk is the market forms a lower high and a new negative trend develops. They will be encouraged by this morning’s early gains, but failure between the old resistance at $0.67070/$0.6130 For now an uncertain near term outlook has formed. A closing break above $0.6130 would decisively improve the outlook.
The euro bulls fought back on Friday to suggest that they are not going to just rollover amidst signs of renewing dollar strength. Having broken the near four week recovery uptrend the risk is now to the downside. So the rebound from $1.0810 will have come as welcome relief for the bulls. However, there is still a negative bias that has formed on EUR/USD in recent sessions, and this is once more weighing as the market has drifted back lower this morning. Momentum indicators are relatively settled but are threatening to tail off again. The RSI moving below 40 would be a bear signal now, as would a decisive bear cross on MACD lines. The hourly chart shows that the resistance band $1.890/$1.0925 is where the rallies are fading in recent sessions, and with hourly momentum retaining a negative configuration (RSI failing around 60, hourly MACD falling over around neutral), we prefer a retest of $1.0810 and potentially $1.0770 in due course. Below $1.0770 would be the next key bearish breakdown. A close above $1.0935 is needed for the bulls to regain control.
Just when it looked as though the dollar bulls were getting a firm grip on the market, Friday’s intraday rally on Cable pulled the reins on renewed near term downside. However, it may only be a short respite, as the dollar bulls are edging the early exchanges this week and Cable is beginning to drift off again. Having previous seen the breakout around $1.2485 being a basis of support, this is now becoming a barrier to gains. A near term resistance is now forming $1.2485/$1.2520 and intraday rallies are increasingly fading. This is beginning to weigh on daily momentum indicators. With Stochastics already having crossed lower, RSI has turned back from 60 and MACD lines tailing off around neutral. These conditions would suggest that Cable rally has now played out and the risk is growing to the downside. A renewed corrective outlook is threatening, and if support at $1.2405 is breached then it would open the door for a bear leg lower. This shows well on the hourly chart, with the weakness beginning to weigh on a clutch of flat moving averages and hourly momentum configuration beginning to take a more negative bias (hourly RSI failing around 60 and weighing down towards 30). A close above $1.2520 would abort this growing corrective bias.
The dollar bulls may have failed to grasp control of the market on Friday, but they have started the new week in good shape and are again looking to put pressure on the near term pivot resistance 108.00/108.20. Give then market continues with a slight trend lower of the past two weeks, there is still a slight negative near term bias within what is essentially a range between 106.90/109.35. However, reaction around the resistance band 108.00/108.20 will be key as to how the near term bias develops. The two week downtrend falls around 108.00 today, whilst the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (of 112.20/101.20) also sits at 108.00. The hourly chart shows that there is a near term pivot around 108.20. So if today’s intraday rally again falters in or just below the 108.00/108.20 band , then the bias will remain negative for pressure on 106.90/107.15. Above 108.20 improves the outlook, whilst a decisive move above 108.60 would shift the bias positive within this range.
Having broken the support of the breakout at $1702, the corrective momentum on gold continues to build. A decisive negative candle confirmed a broken uptrend and a near term retreat for gold. The corrective candles on the daily chart are beginning to rack up now, and once more this morning, we see intraday gains being sold into. The first key test for the bulls to defend will be the support of the old breakout at $1671. This became a pivot in early April and is under pressure this morning. A closing breach of this support would be a disappointment for the bulls and open the next pivot around $1640. The hourly chart shows a small top pattern completed below $1706 which implies around -$40 of corrective target (c. $1666), so this near term move still has downside potential. Hourly momentum implies a corrective bias, but without significant bearish momentum building up yet. The hourly RSI still holding above 30 reflects this. However, we see this just as a question of how far the corrective move goes before support kicks in for the next bull leg. We continue to view these near term corrections as a chance for medium term buying opportunities. Given the neat term top target, $1671 support could well be breached today, but whilst $1640 holds we retain a fairly positive view of this move still. The breakdown at $1702 is now resistance overhead.
The floodgates opened on WTI on Friday and technically because of the contract basis of trading, the outlook is difficult to realistically call, aside from the continued bearish outlook. The front month May contract on WTI has plummeted by -18% this morning, however, given the contract rollover tomorrow (the June contract is “only” down 6% today) and deep contango in the market (June is trading at $23.60), it means that this chart will look drastically different tomorrow. However, the breakdown of support last week reflects the massive glut of supply and ongoing bearish outlook, with WTI trading at levels not seen since 1999 this morning. Quite where the market will end up at the close tonight will be hard to say, but selling into near term strength remains the way to play WTI.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
After about a week of consolidation, the Dow has again broken out. Another decisively strong candlestick on Friday took a decisive close clear of resistance at 24,040 and pulls the market to a five week high. Furthermore, the recovery is now through the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the big sell-off (29,567/18,213) at 23,890. This opens 61.8% Fib (at 25,230) as the next target area, but also means that the 50% Fib is a support area. Subsequently, with futures dipping slightly lower this morning, we see weakness as a chance to buy. There is a near term band of support 23,890/24,040. Momentum remains strong with the recovery, with RSI confirming the breakout to multi-week highs, MACD lines continuing to rise and Stochastics remaining in strong configuration. The breakout also means that 23,095 becomes a key higher low. Support of the now four week uptrend comes in at 23,860 today.