Major markets are giving mixed signals over the outlook for risk appetite. After threatening to turn corrective in the past week, Wall Street equities staged an impressive rally yesterday. However, with Treasury yields still struggling around one month lows, and the US dollar finding support (helped by impressive housing data), the sustainability of renewed buying on Wall Street could be questionable. There is still a dark cloud of faltering progress in the economic re-opening. Fed chair Powell believes that the US is into an important new phase sooner than expected, but when the WHO suggests the pandemic is actually speeding up globally, this is likely to drive continued caution amongst traders and investors. The dollar is regaining lost ground across the major currencies today and this is just beginning to weigh on equities slightly once more. This is also lending a consolidation to the breakout on gold and dragging on oil. Whilst yesterday was a good start to the week for risk appetite, it would appear that today is beginning to see markets swing back the other way. It will be interesting to see what the impact on US Consumer Confidence levels are after the easing of lockdown restrictions have been phased back recently.
Wall Street closed decisively higher yesterday with the S&P 500 +1.5% higher at 3053, but with futures just slipping a shade today (E-mini S&Ps -0.2%) this positive momentum is just leaking away again. Asian markets have reacted positively to better than expected Chinese PMI data, with the Nikkei +1.3% and Shanghai Composite +0.7%. However, this has not helped European markets, with a mixed look to the early moves, as FTSE futures are slightly lower by -0.2% and DAX futures all but flat. In forex, there is a stronger USD across the major pairs, with EUR and NZD just leading the underperformers. In commodities there is a consolidation on gold and silver, whilst oil is slightly lower by around half a percent.
European inflation and US confidence are in focus on the economic calendar today. Flash Eurozone HICP is at 1000BST and is expected to show headline inflation for June is expected to remain at +0.1% (+0.1% in May) whilst core inflation is expected to drop slightly to +0.8% year on year (from +0.9% in May). The issue will be whether the upside surprise in German inflation yesterday is any baring, which could lend to an upside surprise in the Eurozone data? US house price growth for April are in focus at 1400BST with the S&P Case Shiller House Price Index, which is expected to fall slightly to +3.8% (from +3.9% in March). Then at 1500BST, the Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence which is expected to begin to decisively recover to 91.8 in June (from 86.6 in May).
From a long list of central bankers set to speak today, Fed chair Powell is the most important, with his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee at 1730BST. There are a few other Fed speakers to watch for too, with John Williams (centrist voter) at 1600BST, Lael Brainard (leans slightly dovish, voter) at 1605BST, and Neel Kashkari (dove, voter) at 1900BST.
Chart of the Day – Silver
June has been a really frustrating month to be trading silver. False upside moves, failed downside breaks and a lack of conviction has seen the market forming a range between support around $17.20 and resistance of $18.36. The three month recovery uptrend has been creaking in recent sessions (and perhaps needs re-aligning), but with gold now making moves to break higher, is the same ready to be seen on silver? It is noticeable that silver has struggled in recent weeks, with momentum indicators reflecting a frustrating time (the RSI is now stuck under 60). However, Stochastics are beginning to tick higher and MACD lines are bottoming. Upside pressure is building to test $18.05 and a closing move above would help to re-engage the bulls to move towards resistance at $18.36. Daily RSI moving above 60 would be confirmation of building positive traction. Already we have seen the support forming above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement (of $11.62/$18.93) at $17.20 and if the market can begin to develop positive traction through $18.35 a full move to test $18.93 would be open (along with a range projection target of $19.50). We are happy to be long of silver now the market is beginning to pull higher (last week’s low of $17.39 helps the support forming process). With momentum indicators looking primed, the bulls just need a nudge forward now. We look to buy into near term weakness supported above $17.20/$17.39 for pressure on $18.35 and beyond.
Price action on EUR/USD over the past week has created an uncertain outlook now. The market is lacking traction in direction and the recovery trend has been broken. The pair looks to now be forming a broadening range (around four weeks in duration now). Support forming of recent lows $1.1165/$1.1190 coming above the old key $1.1145 breakout suggests that this is a bullish consolidation. Momentum indicators are settling down now too, with RSI stabilising around 50 and Stochastics looking to bottom. Taking a snapshot of recent candlestick configuration, in the past six completed sessions, there have been two strong bull candles, two strong bear candles and now latterly a couple of candles lacking conviction. With the market rolling over a shade this morning, there is very mild negative bias forming, but the hourly chart shows support around $1.1215 initially to protect $1.1190. Whilst support at $1.1165 holds, the outlook will retain its ranging configuration. A close below $1.1145 would be a key negative break. Resistance now initially at yesterday’s high of $1.1288.
Another key downside break is taking Cable ever lower within its medium term trading range with the key support band $1.2075/$1.2160 coming closer into view. Initially it had looked as though sterling was looking to build some sort of support yesterday, but the selling pressure increased as the session wore on and another negative candle has taken the market to a four week low. The move is backed by a developing downtrend of the past two and a half weeks, (falling at $1.2430 today), whilst momentum indicators also confirm the ongoing deterioration. We now see the daily RSI falling under 40 and the last time it was this low was when the $1.2160 low was formed. With Cable now making consistent lower daily highs, we look to use intraday rallies as a chance to sell for a test of $1.2160 and potentially the key medium term range low of $1.2075. The hourly chart shows how pivot levels of resistance are being left now. Yesterday’s high of $1.2390 is an increasingly important support, but equally it seems this morning, that Friday’s low around $1.2310 is becoming a new basis of resistance on a rebound. Initial support at $1.2250 is yesterday’s low.
A positive reaction to the US housing data yesterday resulted in some building traction in a dollar rebound (at least against the biggest safe haven, the yen). This has driven an interesting positive development on USD/JPY, with a move above near term resistance at 107.60. Up until yesterday afternoon, the bulls had been struggling to really get a foothold for recovery within in the medium term range. However, now we see the early stages of a near term uptrend (just one week old). With an encouraging positive bias this morning, the bulls will be looking for a decisive close above 107.60 to break clear of this resistance. This would then imply a rebound target towards 108.60. The move is backed by momentum, where MACD lines are bull crossing for the first time since early May (when the pair then went on a four week rally), whilst RSI is above 50 and Stochastics swinging decisively higher. The hourly chart shows the near term importance of holding support of 107.45/107.60 now which is a near term buy zone. Support at 106.80 is a growing important higher low too.
If last week was all about the breakout, it would appear that this week is all about consolidating the move. Since the original March rally tailed off in mid-April, it has effectively taken more than two months for the bulls to make their next move. However, with several false upside dawns in that time, perhaps it is understandable that the market is taking this breakout with caution. We are also cautious with our positive outlook on gold. Holding above $1744 will now be a key gauge as to the outlook of the market. This breakout above $1764 (the old May high) has been consolidated in recent sessions, but the signs are encouraging for the bulls. Previous moves higher in May and early June came with wilting momentum. However, on this occasion, we see RSI pulling decisively above 60 (the highest since April), Stochastics holding bullish configuration and MACD lines tracking higher. A three week uptrend lends support at $1756 today and we would look to use supported weakness (holding above $1744, but ideally above the uptrend) as a chance to buy. The rally high of $1779 from last week is a multi-year high, but if the bulls can continue to build support above $1744 then a move to $1795 (the key 2012 high) is very likely. The hourly chart reflects a mild consolidation forming, but still holding positive configuration, we prefer another upside break. Below $1744 would defer this outlook, whilst $1720 remains a basis of medium term pivot support.
Brent Crude Oil
The recovery is settling into a phase of uncertainty now. The price volatility has settled down in the past month, with the Average True Range now sitting at around $2.15, and the daily candles are beginning to lose consistency of direction. Turning into more of a consolidation means that the six week uptrend is being chipped away (this is the second uptrend of the recovery we are going to have to re-align) as the bull run further loses traction. Despite this, there is still a positive bias to the oil outlook, with support still forming at higher levels. However, the rolling over on momentum indicators suggests that the move is losing impetus. The daily MACD lines in decline from a bear cross are the main concern, but whilst RSI and Stochastics remain above their 50 levels, then we would still see a positive bias. Support between $39.50/$40.00 is important on a near term basis and if breached would mean that oil is in fact in a multi-week range (between $37.00/$43.95). So the bulls need to hold their ground and build back above yesterday’s high of $41.95 to test $43.95 again.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
The bulls have fought back at the beginning of the week, posting a strong recovery session of +2.3% which goes a long way to negating the big sell-off from Friday. Defending the support at 24,765/24,845 is a key medium term objective as the market has slipped away in recent weeks. So, leaving support at 24,970 from Friday’s low could be an important moment for the bulls, meaning that the daily RSI has picked up again in the mid-40s and Stochastics also begin to ease their deterioration. However, the hourly chart shows that the Dow now needs another positive session today to build on this rebound. The hourly RSI has been faltering consistently around 50 for the past two weeks, with hourly MACD struggling under neutral. The bulls need to push the recovery through these levels to suggest a rebound has traction once more. Resistance is initially at 25,770 with overhead supply an issue towards 26,000. If the market can pull above 26,000 then the more considerable task of closing the island reversal gap can resume.