In this post, we are going to be analysing the EUR/USD forex pair, focusing on both the macroeconomic perspective and technical charts to provide a
What is Currency Trading?
Introduction to currency trading or Forex trading
Forex trading, also known as foreign exchange trading, currency trading, or FX market, refers to the buying and selling of currencies in the forex market. The forex market is a decentralized market that operates 24 hours a day, five days a week, and is the largest financial market in the world, with a daily trading volume of over $7 trillion. In forex trading, individuals and organizations buy and sell different currency pairs, such as the US dollar and the euro, in order to make a profit. Forex trades are conducted through a broker, who acts as a mediator between buyers and sellers. A currency’s value constantly fluctuates, and forex traders take advantage of these changes by buying low and selling high or by selling high and buying low. Forex trading can be a profitable venture for those who have a solid understanding of the currency market and the factors that drive currency prices.
History of Foreign exchange market
The foreign exchange market, also known as the forex market, is a decentralized market where the buying and selling of currencies worldwide takes place, with currency pairs being the primary units of trade. The history of the forex markets can be traced back to ancient times when money was first used as a medium of exchange for goods and services.
Modern currency markets began to take shape during the 19th century when countries began to adopt the gold standard, and the exchange of foreign currencies became more widespread. In the late 1800s and early 1900s, currency exchange was mainly conducted through banks and other financial institutions, which acted as intermediaries between buyers and sellers of currencies.
During the 20th century, the foreign exchange market saw significant growth and development. In the aftermath of World War II, the Bretton Woods Agreement was signed, which established the U.S. dollar as the dominant global currency and pegged other currencies to it. This led to the creation of the world’s first modern forex market.
In the 1970s, the Bretton Woods Agreement was abandoned, and the world’s currencies began to float freely against each other, leading to the ability to trade currencies freely. This marked the beginning of the modern foreign exchange market as we know it today. Since then, the forex market has become one of the world’s largest and most actively traded financial markets, with a daily trading volume of over $7 trillion.
The development of new technologies, such as the internet and electronic trading platforms, has made it easier for individuals and institutions to participate in the foreign exchange market, enabling them to trade currencies more easily. Today, the forex market is accessible to traders and investors worldwide, and it continues to grow and evolve as new financial products and technologies are developed.
How does currency trading work?
To begin trading currencies, one must first establish a Forex trading account with a broker. The trader selects a currency pair to trade, such as the EUR/USD, and then determines whether to buy or sell the base currency (EUR) relative to the quote currency (USD) based on their market analysis and projections for the currency’s value.
If the trader believes that the value of the base currency (EUR) will increase compared to the quote currency (USD), they will carry out a buy transaction for the EUR/USD currency pair. If their analysis proves to be accurate and the value of the base currency (EUR) does indeed rise, they can then execute a sell transaction for the pair and secure a profit from their currency trades.
Major players in the forex markets
Here are some of the major players in the forex market:
- Central Banks – Central banks play a crucial role in the forex market as they control the supply and demand of their country’s currency. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England are some of the most influential central banks in the forex market.
- Commercial Banks – Commercial banks are responsible for facilitating international trade by offering currency exchange services to their clients. They also play an important role in the forex market as they use currency hedging strategies to minimize their exposure to currency risk.
- Investment Banks – Investment banks provide trading services for large institutions and corporations. They also engage in speculative trading in the forex market and offer currency derivatives products such as currency swaps and options.
- Hedge Funds – Hedge funds use a variety of investment strategies to generate returns, and many of them actively trade in the forex market. They use leverage to maximize their returns and can significantly impact currency prices.
- Retail Traders – Retail traders, also known as individual traders, make up a small portion of the total forex market participants. They trade through online platforms offered by retail forex brokers.
- Non-Banking Financial Institutions – Non-banking financial institutions, such as insurance companies and pension funds, also participate in the forex market to manage their currency exposures.
Major currencies that are traded in the forex market:
There are several major currencies in the forex market, each with its own unique characteristics and influences on the market. Some of the most traded currencies include the United States Dollar (USD), the Euro (EUR), the Japanese Yen (JPY), the British Pound (GBP), the Swiss Franc (CHF), and the Australian Dollar (AUD).
For forex traders, it’s crucial to understand the behaviour and future market trends of these major currencies. They often form the basis of a forex trading strategy, as they are highly liquid and offer favourable exchange rates. Forex traders may choose to specialize in a particular currency pair or take advantage of opportunities presented by multiple currency pairs.
One of the key advantages of trading in the forex market is the ability to benefit from currency fluctuations, both in terms of buying and selling currencies. For example, a forex trader may choose to buy a foreign currency if they believe that its value is likely to increase in the future and then sell it for a profit when the value does, in fact, rise.
The major currencies play a significant role in the forex market and are essential for forex traders to consider when developing their forex trading strategy. Understanding the behaviour and future market trends of these currencies can help forex traders make informed decisions and maximize their profits.
The 6 most traded currency pairs in the world
There are several currency pairs traded in the forex market, but the most commonly traded ones are known as major currency pairs. These currency pairs make up more than 85% of the total daily forex market turnover. The following are the major currency pairs in the forex market:
- EUR/USD (Euro/US Dollar) – This is the most traded currency pair in the forex market, accounting for 28% of the total daily forex market turnover. The pair represents the value of the Euro expressed in US dollars.
- USD/JPY (US Dollar/Japanese Yen) – This currency pair represents the value of the US dollar expressed in the Japanese yen. It is the second most traded currency pair in the forex market, accounting for 13% of the total daily forex market turnover.
- GBP/USD (British Pound/US Dollar) – This currency pair represents the value of the British pound expressed in US dollars. It is known as “The Cable” and is the third most traded currency pair in the forex market, accounting for 11% of the total daily forex market turnover.
- USD/CHF (US Dollar/Swiss Franc) – This currency pair represents the value of the US dollar expressed in Swiss francs. It is the fourth most traded currency pair in the forex market, accounting for 7% of the total daily forex market turnover.
- AUD/USD (Australian Dollar/US Dollar) – This currency pair represents the value of the Australian dollar expressed in US dollars. It is the fifth most traded currency pair in the forex market, accounting for 6% of the total daily forex market turnover.
- USD/CAD (US Dollar/Canadian Dollar) – This currency pair represents the value of the US dollar expressed in Canadian dollars. It is the sixth most traded currency pair in the forex market, accounting for 5% of the total daily forex market turnover.
The major currency pairs in the forex market are the world’s most liquid and widely traded pairs. Investors can trade these pairs at any time, as the forex market operates 24 hours a day, five days a week.
What moves the Forex market?
Supply and demand play a crucial role in determining the exchange rates of different currencies. When there is a higher demand for a particular currency, its value increases, while a decrease in demand leads to a decrease in value. On the other hand, an increase in the supply of a currency leads to a decrease in its value, while a decrease in supply causes its value to increase.
Interest rates also play a crucial role in the forex market. Central banks of different countries regularly adjust their interest rates to control inflation and maintain economic stability. These changes in interest rates can affect the demand for a particular currency and, in turn, its exchange rate.
The forex markets also play an important role in the movement of exchange rates. The foreign exchange market is vast, with participants from all over the world, and the flow of money between countries can affect the exchange rates. In addition, the forex market is highly liquid, meaning that it can respond quickly to changes in demand, which can lead to significant fluctuations in exchange rates.
The stock market can also impact the forex market. The stock market is closely linked to the overall health of an economy, and changes in stock prices can affect the demand for a particular currency. For example, a strong stock market can lead to an increase in demand for a currency, while a weak stock market can lead to a decrease in demand.
Lastly, foreign currency can also play a role in moving the forex market. The availability of foreign currency can affect the supply and demand for a particular currency, and changes in the value of foreign currency can also impact the exchange rates.
Developing a trading strategy in Forex market
Developing a successful trading strategy in the forex market requires careful planning and a thorough understanding of the market. The following steps can help you create an effective strategy for trading in the forex market:
- Determine your investment goals: Your investment goals will influence the type of strategy you develop. For example, if you want to generate steady profits, a more conservative strategy might be appropriate, while if you are looking to maximize profits in a short period of time, a more aggressive strategy may be called for.
- Study the market: Before you start trading, it is essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of the forex market, including market participants, economic indicators, and current trends. This will help you make informed trading decisions and develop a more effective strategy.
- Identify your trading style: There are different styles of trading in the forex market, including scalping, swing trading, and position trading. Identifying your preferred style will help you develop a strategy that is tailored to your individual strengths and weaknesses.
- Choose your trading instruments: You can trade a wide range of currency pairs in the forex market. It’s important to choose the pairs that you are most comfortable trading and that have a history of providing reliable returns.
- Develop a trading plan: Your trading plan should outline your entry and exit points, as well as your risk management strategies. You should also establish your position sizing, stop loss levels, and profit targets.
- Monitor the market: Keeping track of economic news, market trends, and other factors that could affect the value of currency pairs is essential to successful forex trading. You should regularly monitor the market to ensure that your strategy is still relevant and effective.
- Regularly review and update your strategy: As the forex market evolves, it is important to review and update your strategy regularly. This will help you stay ahead of the curve and adapt to changing market conditions.
It is also important to keep in mind that no trading strategy is 100% foolproof, and even the most successful traders can experience losses. It’s essential to have a well-thought-out risk management plan in place to minimize your losses and maximize your profits.
Developing a successful trading strategy in the forex market requires a combination of market knowledge, discipline, and a well-planned approach. By following these steps, you can increase your chances of success and make informed decisions in the forex market.
Basic terminologies in forex market
The following are some of the basic terms used in the forex market:
Currency Pair: A currency pair is the quotation and pricing structure of the currencies traded in the forex market. The value of a currency is determined by its comparison to another currency. The first currency of a currency pair is called the base currency, and the second is called the quote currency. For example, in the currency pair EUR/USD, EUR is the base currency, and USD is the quote currency.
Bid Price: The bid price is the highest price that a buyer is willing to pay for a currency. It is the price at which the market maker is willing to buy the base currency.
Ask Price: The ask price is the lowest price that a seller is willing to receive for a currency. It is the price at which the market maker is willing to sell the base currency.
Spread: The spread is the difference between the bid and ask price. It is the cost of trading in the forex market and is usually measured in pips.
Pip: A pip is the smallest unit of price movement in the forex market. It is the last decimal place in a currency pair’s exchange rate.
Leverage: Forex leverage refers to the use of borrowed capital to increase the potential return on an investment in the foreign exchange market. It involves borrowing funds from a broker to trade a larger position size than would be possible with the trader’s own capital.
The concept of forex leverage is based on the idea that traders can increase their potential profits by magnifying the size of their positions using borrowed funds. Leverage allows traders to control a larger amount of currency with a relatively small amount of their own capital.
While forex leverage can increase potential profits, it also magnifies potential losses. Therefore, traders must exercise caution when using leverage and ensure that they have a sound risk management strategy in place.
Margin: Margin is the amount of money that a trader must have in their account to open and maintain a position in the forex market.
Long Position: A long position is a trade in which a trader buys a currency with the expectation that its value will increase.
Short Position: A short position is a trade in which a trader sells a currency with the expectation that its value will decrease.
Central Bank: A central bank is a government-owned institution responsible for implementing monetary policy and issuing currency. Central banks play a significant role in the forex market as they can influence exchange rates through monetary policy decisions and currency interventions.
Example of currency trading
Here is an example of currency trading, both in terms of loss and profit:
Suppose an investor named John wants to trade in the currency market. He has $100,000, and he wants to convert it into euros (EUR). The current exchange rate between the US dollar (USD) and the euro is 1 USD = 0.8 EUR. John buys 80,000 EUR using his $100,000.
A few days later, the exchange rate changes to 1 USD = 0.7 EUR. John decides to convert his euros back into dollars. He sells his 80,000 EUR for $56,000. In this scenario, John has made a loss of $44,000 because the exchange rate has moved against him.
On the other hand, suppose John buys 80,000 EUR when the exchange rate is 1 USD = 0.7 EUR, and later the exchange rate changes to 1 USD = 0.8 EUR. John decides to convert his euros back into dollars. He sells his 80,000 EUR for $64,000. In this scenario, John has made a profit of $16,000 because the exchange rate has moved in his favour.
This example shows how the fluctuation in exchange rates can result in either a loss or profit in currency trading. It’s important for traders to be aware of market conditions and understand the factors that affect exchange rates in order to make informed decisions.
What are the benefits of forex trading?
Forex trading has gained immense popularity over the years due to its numerous benefits, some of which include:
High Liquidity: The forex market is the largest financial market in the world, with a daily trading volume of over $6 trillion. This high liquidity ensures that traders can buy or sell a currency pair at any time without having to worry about price slippage.
24/5 Trading: The forex market operates 24 hours a day, five days a week, which allows traders to trade whenever they want, regardless of their location or time zone.
Accessibility: Forex trading is now accessible to a wider range of people due to advancements in technology and the internet. With an internet connection and a trading account, anyone can start trading forex from the comfort of their own home.
Leverage: Leverage can be beneficial for forex traders because it allows them to increase their potential profits with a smaller investment. However, it’s important to note that leverage also increases the risk of losses, as any losses will be magnified in proportion to the amount of leverage used.
Traders should therefore exercise caution when using leverage and ensure they have a solid understanding of the risks involved. It’s also recommended to use appropriate risk management strategies, such as setting stop-loss orders.
Low Costs: Forex trading is relatively low cost compared to other forms of investment. Most forex brokers do not charge commission fees, and the spread (the difference between the bid and ask price) is often very small.
Diversification: Forex trading provides an opportunity to diversify investment portfolios. By trading different currency pairs, traders can reduce their overall risk exposure.
Volatility: The forex market is highly volatile, which can lead to significant price movements in a short period of time. This provides ample opportunities for traders to make profits, but it also comes with the risk of substantial losses.
Forex trading offers a wide range of benefits for those who are willing to invest time and effort into learning about the market. However, it is important to remember that forex trading also comes with risks, and it is important to approach it with caution and a solid understanding of the market dynamics.
Risk in forex trading
Forex trading, like any other type of financial investment, carries various types of risks that traders should be aware of before making a trade. Some of the key risks involved in forex trading include:
- Market Volatility: The forex market is highly volatile, meaning that exchange rates can fluctuate rapidly and unpredictably. This can result in sudden and significant losses for traders who are not prepared for these changes.
- Leverage: Forex trading is often leveraged, meaning that traders can control large amounts of currency with a relatively small amount of capital. This leverage can magnify potential gains, but it also magnifies potential losses.
- Interest rate risk: The difference in interest rates between two countries can affect the value of their currencies. If a currency has a higher interest rate than another, investors will be attracted to it, causing its value to rise relative to the other currency.
- Political and economic instability: Political and economic events can have a major impact on exchange rates. For example, a political crisis in a country can led to a sharp devaluation of its currency.
- Liquidity risk: The forex market is highly liquid, but this does not mean that all currencies are equally easy to trade. Some currencies may be thinly traded, making it difficult to find a buyer or seller when you need to close your position.
- Currency correlation risk: Currencies are often correlated, meaning they can move in tandem. This can create risks for traders who are not aware of these relationships and who are not properly diversifying their portfolios.
- Fraud risk: Unfortunately, forex brokers or traders have been engaging in fraudulent activities, such as “stop-loss hunting” or price manipulation. It’s important to only trade with reputable and regulated brokers.
It’s important to keep in mind that these risks are not exhaustive and that traders should carefully consider their own risk tolerance and investment goals before making a trade.
Currency crosses or cross rates may be terms you are unfamiliar with, but they simply refer to a transaction between two currencies, of which the
The history of currency markets is a long and complex one, but it is fascinating nonetheless. Currency markets are a pivotal part of the global